Title race
Three tiers arise when looking at the title chances:1) Arsenal and Liverpool have an advantage (34.4% and 31.3%, fair odds of 2.91 and 3.19). Liverpool are defending the title after the convincing performance of the past season, while Arsenal is missing the title since 2003.
2) Manchester City, after winning 6 out of the last 8 titles, have a 18.3% title chance. Their ranking is heavily penalized by the last disastrous season (from #1 in the world to current #7)
3) Chelsea (6.5%), Aston Villa (3.4%) and Newcastle (2.2%) are the remaining teams with realistic title chances.
European Competitions race
Other than the teams mentioned, the strongest contenders for the top 6 spots are Manchester United, Brighton and Crystal Palace. The race will be tight, as there are 15 teams having a top-6 probability bigger than 10%.Relegation
Newly promoted Sunderland emerges as the clear weakest team of the league, having 84.5% chances of relegation (!), the highest value recorded across all the simulated leagues.The battle to avoid Championship is wide open, with 9 teams having relegation chances bigger than 10%. Tottenham is the first team out of this group (9.8% relegation chances, but also a remarkable 7.2% probability of top 4).
