Bundesliga 2025/26 preview

Bundesliga 2025/26 preview
The German top league returns for a new season on August 22nd. Bayern Munich won 12 out of the last 13 titles, and are once again the favorites.

Title race

The title race seems to be a race for 3 teams: Bayern Munich with 46.9% (fair odds of 2.13), Bayer Leverkusen (21.4% and 4.67 fair odds) and Borussia Dortumund (16.7%, fair odds of 5.98).
Bayern aim to defend their crown, with their two main challengers being the last teams to have broken their dominance in past seasons.

European Competitions race

Other than the three teams mentioned, that have strong chances to qualify for the next UEFA Champions League, the race for the the first six places is virtually open to all the teams, with 13 teams having a chance of top 6 bigger than 10% (!).
The strongest contenders for the 4th place are Stuttgart, Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt, while for the top 6 race it is worth mentioning Mainz, Freiburg and Werder Bremen.

Relegation

The fight to avoid the last places is also wide open. The last two teams will be sent directly to Zweite Bundesliga, and the third-last will play a playout match.
St. Pauli, Heidenheim and Koln are the teams at biggest risk (>30%), but all the teams up to #9 (Werder Bremen) have relegation chances bigger than 10%.
The newly promoted teams (Koln and Hamburg) have similar chances, with predicted positions being #15 and #16.
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