Who will qualify directly to the World Cup?
The European qualifier will decide 16 of the 40 teams that will participate in the 2026 World Cup. Teams are divided into 12 groups, with the winner qualifying directly.After half of the games have been played, the situation for the #1 spot in each group is quite clear, with some surprises. Spain, Netherlands, Norway, England, Switzerland, France, Portugal, Austria and Croatia all have more than 85% chances of securing a spot, according to our latest simulations.
The situation is more uncertain in group A, where Germany's loss to Slovakia mixed the cards, group C, where Denmark and Scotland will play a decisive match, and group J, with Belgium in the lead with 71.4% chances.
The race for the knockout tournament
The remaining 4 spots will be decided in March with a single-round elimination tournament played between:-the 12 teams in second place of each group
-the 4 best teams of the Nations League, that are not already in the first 2 of any group of the qualifier
A separate article will analyze the situation of the knockout tournament. As of now, all we can say is that the race for top 2 is still wide open in each group, apart from groups I and L(with Italy and Czech Republic having the spot almost secured).
Follow Goallytics.com for updated simulations of international tournament.
