Out of the 48 participants, 42 are already qualified, leaving 6 spots up for grab. All the remaining teams that will qualify will be placed in the last pot, no matter their ranking.
For the teams that are not qualified yet, their participation is weighted by their qualification odds, so each team have appeared in a subset of the simulations.
These numbers are the results of 10’000 simulated draws of the groups, each of which has been simulated 100’000 times, using Elo rankings.
The top 3 favorite teams are, not surprisingly, Spain, Brazil and Argentina. Then follows a group of 6 UEFA teams: France, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Germany and Belgium. Top 10 ends with Colombia (3.35% win chances). The first AFC team is Japan (11th, 3.14%), while for CAF it’s Morocco (17th, 2.12%).
The host nations (Mexico, Canada and the US) have the favour of being placed in pot 1, which boosted their chances of qualification to the round of 32 (74.4%, 67.3% and 72.7%, respectively), although they are unlikely to advance in the knockout (2.24%, 0.82% and 1.74% are the chances of winning the title).
Teams like Italy and Turkey, who are not yet qualified (and have 51.4% and 32.5% chances of participating) have less chances of advancing to the knockout (both because of the uncertainty about participation, and because of their placement in the fourth pot in the draw). However, given their superior ratings, if they manage to get to round of 32 they would be serious contenders for the title. Italy qualifies to the round of 32 only in 34.3% of the simulations, but, if they manage to do so, they will have around 5% title chances, and around 12% of reaching the final.
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