Who Are the Big Teams Beating to Get Their Points?
Not all points are created equal. In a long Premier League season, where you get your points from can reveal a lot about a team’s strength, consistency, and mentality. The chart above looks at how the current top contenders split their points between four tiers of opposition:1st–5th | 6th–10th | 11th–15th | 16th–20th.
Let’s break it down team by team.
Arsenal – Ruthless vs mid and lower table, struggling vs the elite
Only 17% of Arsenal’s points come from direct rivals in the top five, by far the lowest among these teams. That confirms a familiar narrative: strong overall consistency, but fewer decisive blows in title-race head-to-head matches.The real foundation of their season is dominance elsewhere:
87% vs 6th–10th
100% vs 11th–20th
They rarely slip up against anyone outside the elite. Arsenal are efficient, reliable, and maximise return against teams they “should” beat — but big matches remain their weakest point.
Manchester City – Balanced, professional, and inevitable
City’s spread is the most balanced of the group:44% vs top five — respectable returns against elite rivals
100% vs 6th–10th — complete control against strong mid-table sides
100% vs 16th–20th — zero mercy against relegation candidates
The only softer area is the 40% vs 11th–15th, which likely includes a couple of surprise draws or off-days. Overall though, this is what a title profile looks like: steady points everywhere, no glaring structural weakness.
Aston Villa – Punching up brilliantly, but not as dominant elsewhere
Unai Emery’s side stand out for their ability to compete with the best: 75% of Villa’s points come vs top-five opponents — an outstanding figureThey’re fearless in big games, frequently taking points off direct rivals. But look lower down the table and a different picture emerges:
47% vs 6th–10th
73% vs 11th–15th
Villa occasionally miss opportunities where bigger teams usually capitalise. Their giant-killing ability is fantastic, but sustained title challenges are built on killing off everyone else too.
Liverpool – Strong in big games, unexpectedly vulnerable elsewhere
Liverpool are impressive when it matters most:50% vs top five — one of the strongest big-game profiles
100% vs 11th–15th — Klopp’s side rarely fail in these fixtures
But the glaring weakness is brutal:
Only 8% vs 6th–10th
That’s a remarkable and costly drop-off. Whether it’s tactical matchups or mentality against disciplined, well-coached sides, that middle bracket is where Liverpool have lost ground.
Chelsea – Still inconsistent, but improving against weaker opposition
Chelsea’s data reflects a rebuilding team still trying to find stability:44% vs top five — surprisingly competitive in big matches
33% vs 6th–10th — inconsistency against solid sides
80% vs 16th–20th — much better at handling bottom sides than last season
Their performance against mid-table teams remains the barrier to becoming a reliable top-four force again. Still, this is a far healthier profile than last season.
What Does All This Tell Us?
This breakdown highlights different team identities:Arsenal & Man City → ruthless execution machines, especially against weaker teams
Liverpool → big-match mentality strong, but too many dropped points against “awkward” sides
Aston Villa → thrive in big games, but not always reliable elsewhere
Chelsea → competitive vs strong teams, but lacking consistency overall
In a title race, beating the best is great — but relentless consistency against everyone else usually wins championships. On that front, City and Arsenal currently look the most structurally reliable, while Liverpool’s and Villa’s weaknesses explain why their impressive moments don’t always translate into control of the table.
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*This analysis was inspired by Sky Sport Italy analysis on the points distribution on italian teams in Serie A