Napoli will try to defend the title, but the race is wide open: Inter and Atalanta seem to be though contenders. The most uncertain fight will be that for relegation.
Title race
Inter starts the season as the clear favorite, with 36.48% chance of winning the title, according to Goallytics' simulation. The edge stems from a significant ELO rating lead over the contenders (a result of the impressive run in the last edition of the Champions League). The fair betting odds stands at 2.74.Atalanta and Napoli are the next strongest contenders, with 16.06% and 13.54% chances respectively (fair odds are 6.23 and 7.39). Behind them, Juventus, Roma and AC Milan all have chances in the 6-8% range, while Lazio, Fiorentina and Bologna round up the group of teams with noteworthy title odds (>1%).
European Competitions race
The race for European spots is even thighter: accordint to the simulation, 19 out of 20 teams having a realistic shot of ending in the top 6 (above 1%).The qualification for the Champions League looks like a fight for top 9 teams, with Bologna notably having a 19.24% chance of getting a spot.
Relegation
The relegation fight is going to be unpredictable: every team from #10 (Torino) downward have a relegation probability bigger than 6%.Newyly promoted teams have very different paths: Sassuolo, who returned to Serie A after only one year of relegation, seems the best equipped to stay up, with a 21.61% chance of relegation. Cremonese and Pisa, instead, are the most likely to take one of the last three spots (41.85% and 47.81%). Lecce, who saved themselves from relegation on the last match of the past season, is the third candidate for relegation (35.63%).
