Champions League

Probabilities for teams to reach the knockout stages

#	Team	Goals	Average Position	Average Points	Top 8 Odds	Top 24 Odds
1	Bayern Munich	0:0	6.45	17.01	72.69%	98.54%
2	Arsenal	0:0	6.81	16.79	70.76%	98.26%
3	Paris Saint-Germain	0:0	7.58	16.33	65.81%	97.70%
4	Barcelona	0:0	8.64	15.72	59.41%	96.41%
5	Manchester City	0:0	9.49	15.28	54.38%	95.31%
6	Real Madrid	0:0	11.04	14.47	45.71%	92.83%
7	Inter	0:0	12.46	13.80	38.80%	89.78%
8	Liverpool	0:0	12.90	13.59	36.67%	88.78%
9	Aston Villa	0:0	14.08	13.05	31.51%	85.81%
10	Borussia Dortmund	0:0	14.23	12.98	30.75%	85.41%
11	Atletico Madrid	0:0	14.97	12.62	27.41%	83.68%
12	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0:0	15.25	12.51	26.80%	82.43%
13	Roma	0:0	15.71	12.30	24.63%	81.23%
14	Manchester United	0:0	17.31	11.60	19.43%	75.80%
15	PSV Eindhoven	0:0	18.53	11.06	15.81%	71.03%
16	Napoli	0:0	18.57	11.05	15.60%	71.12%
17	Club Brugge	0:0	18.88	10.91	14.92%	69.89%
18	RB Leipzig	0:0	18.98	10.88	14.76%	69.33%
19	Stuttgart	0:0	19.08	10.82	14.29%	69.15%
20	Lens	0:0	19.11	10.82	14.04%	69.17%
21	Lyon	0:0	19.29	10.74	13.74%	68.30%
22	Porto	0:0	19.79	10.51	12.65%	66.05%
23	Como	0:0	19.74	10.54	12.55%	66.41%
24	Real Betis	0:0	19.77	10.52	12.48%	66.30%
25	Lille	0:0	21.12	9.94	9.77%	60.38%
26	Galatasaray	0:0	21.47	9.78	9.10%	58.45%
27	Bodo Glimt	0:0	21.43	9.80	9.00%	58.94%
28	Villarreal	0:0	21.77	9.66	8.39%	57.38%
29	Feyenoord	0:0	23.70	8.80	5.64%	47.81%
30	Shakhtar Donetsk	0:0	23.98	8.67	5.11%	46.63%
31	Celtic	0:0	25.45	8.00	3.49%	39.05%
32	Slavia Praha	0:0	28.41	6.56	1.22%	24.30%
33	Viking	0:0	28.51	6.51	1.18%	23.85%
34	Sabah FK	0:0	29.22	6.15	0.89%	20.49%
35	AEK Athens	0:0	30.65	5.36	0.39%	14.04%
36	Slovan Bratislava	0:0	31.64	4.77	0.25%	9.96%

Knockout stage

Play-offs

Lyon /

Porto

Atletico Madrid /

Sporting Clube de Portugal

Stuttgart /

Lens

Roma /

Manchester United

Como /

Real Betis

Aston Villa /

Borussia Dortmund

Club Brugge /

RB Leipzig

PSV Eindhoven /

Napoli

Porto /

Lyon

Sporting Clube de Portugal /

Atletico Madrid

Lens /

Stuttgart

Manchester United /

Roma

Real Betis /

Como

Borussia Dortmund /

Aston Villa

RB Leipzig /

Club Brugge

Napoli /

PSV Eindhoven

Round of 16

Play-off 1 winner

Manchester City /

Real Madrid

Play-off 2 winner

Paris Saint-Germain /

Barcelona

Play-off 3 winner

Inter /

Liverpool

Play-off 4 winner

Bayern Munich /

Arsenal

Play-off 5 winner

Real Madrid /

Manchester City

Play-off 6 winner

Barcelona /

Paris Saint-Germain

Play-off 7 winner

Liverpool /

Inter

Play-off 8 winner

Arsenal /

Bayern Munich

Quarter-finals

Winner R16 1

Winner R16 2

Winner R16 3

Winner R16 4

Winner R16 5

Winner R16 6

Winner R16 7

Winner R16 8

Semi-finals

Winner QF 1

Winner QF 2

Winner QF 3

Winner QF 4

Final

Winner SF 1

Winner SF 2

Champions League – Probabilities

#	Team	Playoffs	Reach R16	Reach QF	Reach SF	Reach final	Win
1	Bayern Munich	25.9%	94.3%	72.9%	52.1%	34.9%	20.73%
2	Arsenal	27.5%	93.6%	71.3%	49.9%	32.7%	18.99%
3	Paris SG	31.9%	91.4%	66.6%	44.1%	26.8%	14.63%
4	Barcelona	37.0%	88.5%	62.2%	39.5%	22.8%	11.97%
5	Man City	40.9%	85.1%	56.2%	33.2%	17.7%	8.64%
6	Real Madrid	47.1%	79.2%	48.8%	26.7%	13.2%	6.09%
7	Inter	51.0%	72.2%	39.7%	19.3%	8.3%	3.52%
8	Liverpool	52.1%	70.5%	37.7%	17.8%	7.4%	3.02%
9	Aston Villa	54.3%	64.8%	32.5%	14.3%	5.5%	2.12%
10	Dortmund	54.7%	63.2%	30.7%	12.8%	4.7%	1.81%
11	Ath Madrid	56.3%	60.7%	29.3%	12.2%	4.6%	1.75%
12	Sporting CP	55.6%	59.1%	27.6%	11.2%	4.1%	1.53%
13	Roma	56.6%	56.3%	24.9%	9.6%	3.2%	1.14%
14	Man United	56.4%	48.4%	19.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.60%
15	PSV Eindhoven	55.2%	42.3%	15.6%	5.0%	1.4%	0.42%
16	Napoli	55.5%	41.6%	14.9%	4.6%	1.2%	0.37%
17	Club Brugge	55.0%	40.7%	14.8%	4.6%	1.2%	0.36%
18	Stuttgart	54.9%	38.9%	13.2%	3.9%	1.0%	0.29%
19	RB Leipzig	54.6%	39.3%	13.5%	4.1%	1.0%	0.28%
20	Lens	55.1%	38.7%	13.0%	3.8%	0.9%	0.28%
21	Betis	53.8%	36.6%	12.4%	3.6%	0.9%	0.26%
22	Porto	53.4%	36.3%	12.0%	3.5%	0.9%	0.25%
23	Lyon	54.6%	37.8%	12.6%	3.6%	0.9%	0.23%
24	Como	53.9%	36.0%	11.8%	3.4%	0.8%	0.22%
25	Galatasaray	49.3%	28.4%	8.2%	2.1%	0.5%	0.12%
26	Bodo Glimt	49.9%	29.0%	8.4%	2.1%	0.5%	0.11%
27	Villarreal	49.0%	27.5%	7.8%	2.0%	0.4%	0.11%
28	Lille	50.6%	29.4%	8.4%	2.1%	0.4%	0.10%
29	Feyenoord	42.2%	19.3%	4.6%	0.9%	0.1%	0.03%
30	Shakhtar Donetsk	41.5%	18.4%	4.3%	0.8%	0.1%	0.02%
31	Celtic	35.6%	13.5%	2.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.01%
32	Viking	22.7%	5.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.00%
33	Slavia Praha	23.1%	5.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.00%
34	Sabah FK	19.6%	4.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.00%
35	AEK Athens	13.6%	2.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
36	Slovan Bratislava	9.7%	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%

Based on 100˙000 simulations
Last updated: October 21, 2026, 21:01

Season Stats (per 90 minutes)

Team	xG	xGA	Pass %	Poss %	SOG	Shots	Fouls	Offsides	🟨	🟥	Saves
Inter	2.21	2.17	0.0	58.5	9.5	25.5	8.0	3.0	2.5	0.0	5.0
Club Brugge	2.17	2.21	0.0	55.5	7.5	16.0	15.0	1.5	3.5	0.0	7.0
Bayern Munich	1.78	0.32	0.0	66.0	10.0	25.0	6.5	2.5	2.0	0.5	1.0
Liverpool	1.63	1.04	0.0	54.5	7.0	20.0	7.5	4.5	0.5	0.0	2.0
Aston Villa	1.57	0.88	0.0	40.5	10.0	20.5	13.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	4.5
Barcelona	1.44	0.23	0.0	71.5	10.0	23.0	10.0	4.5	0.5	0.0	1.5
Manchester City	1.33	0.93	0.0	59.0	9.5	23.5	13.5	1.5	2.0	0.0	3.0
Stuttgart	1.10	0.41	0.0	63.0	5.5	16.5	14.0	3.0	1.5	0.0	1.5
RB Leipzig	1.09	0.73	0.0	47.0	5.0	16.5	11.5	0.5	2.0	0.0	3.5
Slavia Praha	1.08	0.69	0.0	46.0	6.5	18.0	11.0	2.5	1.0	0.5	4.0
Napoli	0.97	0.71	0.0	45.0	2.5	7.0	13.0	2.0	2.5	0.0	3.5
Arsenal	0.94	0.20	0.0	58.0	8.0	21.0	12.0	2.5	1.5	0.0	1.5
Paris Saint-Germain	0.93	1.33	0.0	59.0	12.0	25.0	9.5	2.0	0.5	0.0	4.5
Lens	0.90	0.86	0.0	59.5	7.0	23.5	8.0	0.5	1.5	0.0	3.0
Real Betis	0.88	0.51	0.0	55.5	6.0	18.5	13.5	0.0	3.5	0.0	1.5
Sporting Clube de Portugal	0.86	0.90	0.0	42.5	5.0	9.5	12.5	1.5	1.0	0.0	4.5
Atletico Madrid	0.77	0.52	0.0	56.5	4.0	9.5	10.5	3.0	1.0	0.0	3.5
Real Madrid	0.74	0.74	0.0	41.0	8.0	16.0	10.0	1.5	1.0	0.0	5.5
Roma	0.74	0.74	0.0	56.0	5.0	11.0	17.0	0.5	2.5	0.0	4.0
PSV Eindhoven	0.73	1.09	0.0	55.5	3.5	10.5	13.0	3.0	2.5	0.0	3.5
Villarreal	0.71	0.97	0.0	50.0	5.0	14.5	8.5	3.0	2.5	0.0	2.5
Shakhtar Donetsk	0.70	0.68	0.0	50.0	3.0	10.0	15.5	2.0	3.5	0.0	1.5
Como	0.67	0.34	0.0	50.5	5.5	12.5	13.5	2.5	2.5	0.0	3.0
Manchester United	0.52	0.77	0.0	50.0	7.0	15.0	12.5	0.5	1.0	0.5	1.0
LASK	0.52	0.81	40.5	43.0	5.8	21.0	12.8	2.8	1.5	0.0	2.5
Porto	0.51	0.88	0.0	40.0	2.5	8.0	12.5	3.5	2.0	0.0	6.0
Fenerbahce	0.44	0.79	39.8	47.0	5.5	13.3	12.0	1.5	3.0	0.0	3.5
Borussia Dortmund	0.42	0.60	0.0	52.0	5.0	13.5	11.5	2.0	1.5	0.0	3.5
AEK Athens	0.34	0.35	43.8	47.8	3.8	15.3	14.3	1.3	2.0	0.0	2.5
Feyenoord	0.34	0.67	0.0	38.0	3.5	8.5	15.5	5.0	1.5	0.0	3.5
Bodo Glimt	0.30	0.21	40.5	48.0	4.0	10.8	9.3	1.0	0.5	0.3	4.3
Sabah FK	0.28	0.43	49.4	44.8	6.6	18.8	13.4	2.2	1.2	0.0	4.6
Galatasaray	0.23	1.44	0.0	44.0	3.0	7.5	11.5	4.0	2.5	0.0	4.0
Lille	0.20	0.94	0.0	43.5	1.0	5.0	10.0	3.5	1.0	0.5	3.5
Viking	0.16	0.89	37.5	37.3	4.8	9.0	12.5	1.0	2.5	0.0	2.8
Slovan Bratislava	0.16	0.44	32.8	40.4	3.8	11.0	11.2	0.4	1.6	0.0	4.4
Mjallby AIF	0.00	0.00	0.0	50.0	2.0	0.0	9.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
NEC Nijmegen	0.00	0.00	73.0	45.0	4.0	12.5	8.5	1.5	2.0	0.5	4.0
Kauno Žalgiris	0.00	0.00	0.0	61.0	7.0	0.0	14.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
Hapoel Beer Sheva	0.00	0.00	57.7	69.7	6.0	10.7	10.0	2.3	3.0	0.7	3.7
Nogometni Klub Celje	0.00	0.00	57.0	54.0	6.3	9.0	14.7	4.0	4.0	0.3	2.3
FC Ararat-Armenia	0.00	0.00	0.0	50.0	3.0	0.0	13.0	1.0	3.0	0.0	0.0
Red Star Belgrade	0.00	0.00	0.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0
Levski Sofia	0.00	0.00	88.5	52.0	3.0	13.0	8.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	2.0
Aarhus	0.00	0.00	86.0	50.0	5.0	14.0	10.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	5.0
Dinamo Zagreb	0.00	0.00	56.3	54.0	4.3	14.3	10.7	1.0	1.3	0.3	2.0
Sturm Graz	0.00	0.00	81.0	50.0	2.0	19.0	12.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	5.0
Sparta Praha	0.00	0.00	83.0	44.0	1.0	6.0	14.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.0
Celtic	0.00	0.00	86.5	57.5	5.0	12.5	10.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	5.5
Lyon	0.00	0.00	87.5	57.5	8.5	18.0	16.0	2.5	1.0	0.0	3.5

Top Scorers

#	Player	Team	Apps	⏱	⚽	🅰️	🟨
1	J. Mickels	Sabah FK	11	723	4	1	2
2	E. Demirović	Stuttgart	3	89	4	0	0
3	E. Haaland	Manchester City	2	180	4	0	1
4	S. Guirassy	Borussia Dortmund	3	210	4	0	0
5	Talisca	Fenerbahce	6	474	4	0	0
6	N. Tresoldi	Club Brugge	2	173	4	0	0
7	O. Dembélé	Paris Saint-Germain	3	160	3	3	0
8	M. Greenwood	Fenerbahce	9	600	3	2	1
9	P. Foden	Manchester City	2	165	3	1	0
10	V. Simić	Sabah FK	11	688	3	0	2
11	Reinaldo	Levski Sofia	8	366	3	0	0
12	N. Sikharulashvili	FC Saburtalo Tbilisi	4	250	3	0	0
13	F. Flecker	LASK	3	84	3	0	0
14	B. Barcola	Liverpool	3	149	3	0	0
15	Ferran Torres	Paris Saint-Germain	3	157	3	0	0
16	A. Mac Allister	Liverpool	3	164	3	0	1
17	N. Jackson	Aston Villa	2	159	3	0	0
18	Z. Tripić	Viking	4	349	3	2	1
19	D. Malen	Roma	3	236	3	2	0
20	A. Helmersen	Bodo Glimt	7	467	3	1	0

Top Assists

#	Player	Team	Apps	⏱	🅰️	⚽	🟨
1	Lamine Yamal	Barcelona	2	180	4	1	0
2	O. Dembélé	Paris Saint-Germain	2	140	3	3	0
3	J. Hauge	Bodo Glimt	6	371	3	1	0
4	T. Puchacz	Sabah FK	10	635	3	0	0
5	A. Isaev	Sabah FK	9	401	3	0	0
6	Sandro Cruz	Slovan Bratislava	8	645	3	0	2
7	Y. Dibango	LASK	2	110	3	0	0
8	Z. Tripić	Viking	4	349	2	3	1
9	M. Greenwood	Fenerbahce	8	518	2	2	1
10	P. Mbina	Sabah FK	10	256	2	1	0
11	S. Auklend	Bodo Glimt	6	429	2	1	1
12	D. Watts	Shamrock Rovers	4	141	2	1	1
13	T. Moi	Viking	4	231	2	1	0
14	J. Frimpong	Liverpool	2	120	2	1	0
15	D. Undav	Stuttgart	2	180	2	1	0
16	K. Aktürkoğlu	Fenerbahce	6	462	2	0	2
17	F. Topić	Dinamo Zagreb	5	80	2	0	1
18	D. Tadić	NEC Nijmegen	4	288	2	0	0
19	C. Tolisso	Lyon	4	358	2	0	0
20	L. Balaj	Drita	2	77	2	0	0

Recent Matches

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Sporting Clube de Portugal

2-3

LASK

Inter

1-0

Shakhtar Donetsk

Real Madrid

4-1

RB Leipzig

Bayern Munich

2-2

Arsenal

Real Betis

1-0

Feyenoord

Club Brugge

3-0

Lens

Aston Villa

3-1

Viking

Lille

2-4

Galatasaray

Como

4-1

Manchester United

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Porto

0-1

PSV Eindhoven

Fenerbahce

2-2

Slavia Praha

Liverpool

4-3

Villarreal

Manchester City

5-1

AEK Athens

Paris Saint-Germain

4-2

Barcelona

Napoli

4-3

Bodo Glimt

Roma

4-0

Slovan Bratislava

Sabah FK

1-2

Borussia Dortmund

Stuttgart

1-1

Atletico Madrid

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Roma

3-4

Real Madrid

Real Betis

3-2

Porto

Manchester City

2-4

Paris Saint-Germain

LASK

3-6

Liverpool

Feyenoord

3-2

Como

Shakhtar Donetsk

3-1

AEK Athens

Aston Villa

6-0

Fenerbahce

Bodo Glimt

1-0

Borussia Dortmund

Slovan Bratislava

0-3

Stuttgart

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Inter

3-4

Club Brugge

Villarreal

3-1

Napoli

Galatasaray

1-4

Barcelona

Arsenal

3-0

Lille

Sabah FK

2-0

Slavia Praha

Atletico Madrid

2-0

Manchester United

Viking

3-3

Bayern Munich

RB Leipzig

1-0

PSV Eindhoven

Lens

0-2

Sporting Clube de Portugal

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Como

4-1

RB Leipzig

Manchester United

4-0

Sabah FK

Fenerbahce

1-1

Roma

Slavia Praha

2-3

Lens

PSV Eindhoven

1-1

Shakhtar Donetsk

Bayern Munich

5-0

Bodo Glimt

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Barcelona

5-1

Feyenoord

Sporting Clube de Portugal

3-1

Galatasaray

Napoli

0-1

Arsenal

Liverpool

2-1

Atletico Madrid

Stuttgart

3-1

Viking

Paris Saint-Germain

6-1

Slovan Bratislava

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Porto

0-2

Manchester City

Real Madrid

2-1

Inter

Club Brugge

2-3

Aston Villa

AEK Athens

1-0

LASK

Borussia Dortmund

3-2

Villarreal

Lille

2-3

Real Betis

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

AEK Athens

4-0

Levski Sofia

Viking

3-1

Dinamo Zagreb

Lyon

1-2

Fenerbahce

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Bodo Glimt

3-0

NEC Nijmegen

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Slovan Bratislava

1-1

Nogometni Klub Celje

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2-1

Sabah FK

Celtic

3-0

LASK

NEC Nijmegen

1-3

Bodo Glimt

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

2-2

Viking

Fenerbahce

1-1

Lyon

Levski Sofia

0-0

AEK Athens

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Sturm Graz

0-1

Fenerbahce

Kairat Almaty

0-1

Levski Sofia

Lyon

3-0

Sparta Praha

Slovan Bratislava

2-0

Mjallby AIF

Kauno Žalgiris

1-2

Dinamo Zagreb

Sabah FK

4-0

Aarhus

Red Star Belgrade

0-2

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Nogometni Klub Celje

2-0

FC Ararat-Armenia

NEC Nijmegen

2-1

Olympiacos

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Fenerbahce

2-0

Sturm Graz

Aarhus

2-1

Sabah FK

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

FC Ararat-Armenia

2-1

Nogometni Klub Celje

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1-0

Red Star Belgrade

Dinamo Zagreb

5-0

Kauno Žalgiris

Olympiacos

0-0

NEC Nijmegen

Sparta Praha

2-1

Lyon

Levski Sofia

1-0

Kairat Almaty

Union Saint-Gilloise

3-3

Bodo Glimt

Mjallby AIF

1-2

Slovan Bratislava