Europa League

Probabilities for teams to reach the knockout stages

#	Team	Current Points	MP	W	D	L	GD	Goals	Average Position	Average Points	Top 8 Odds	Top 24 Odds
1	Lyon	21	8	7	0	1	13	18:5	1.00	21.00	100.00%	100.00%
2	Aston Villa	21	8	7	0	1	8	14:6	2.00	21.00	100.00%	100.00%
3	Midtjylland	19	8	6	1	1	10	18:8	3.00	19.00	100.00%	100.00%
4	Real Betis	17	8	5	2	1	6	13:7	4.00	17.00	100.00%	100.00%
5	Porto	17	8	5	2	1	6	13:7	5.00	17.00	100.00%	100.00%
6	Braga	17	8	5	2	1	6	11:5	6.00	17.00	100.00%	100.00%
7	Freiburg	17	8	5	2	1	6	10:4	7.00	17.00	100.00%	100.00%
8	Roma	16	8	5	1	2	7	13:6	8.00	16.00	100.00%	100.00%
9	Genk	16	8	5	1	2	4	11:7	9.00	16.00	0.00%	100.00%
10	Bologna	15	8	4	3	1	7	14:7	10.00	15.00	0.00%	100.00%
11	Stuttgart	15	8	5	0	3	6	15:9	11.00	15.00	0.00%	100.00%
12	Ferencvaros	15	8	4	3	1	1	12:11	12.00	15.00	0.00%	100.00%
13	Nottingham Forest	14	8	4	2	2	8	15:7	13.00	14.00	0.00%	100.00%
14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8	3	5	0	5	8:3	14.00	14.00	0.00%	100.00%
15	Red Star Belgrade	14	8	4	2	2	1	7:6	15.00	14.00	0.00%	100.00%
16	Celta de Vigo	13	8	4	1	3	4	15:11	16.00	13.00	0.00%	100.00%
17	PAOK	12	8	3	3	2	3	17:14	17.00	12.00	0.00%	100.00%
18	Lille	12	8	4	0	4	3	12:9	18.00	12.00	0.00%	100.00%
19	Fenerbahce	12	8	3	3	2	3	10:7	19.00	12.00	0.00%	100.00%
20	Panathinaikos	12	8	3	3	2	2	11:9	20.00	12.00	0.00%	100.00%
21	Celtic	11	8	3	2	3	-2	13:15	21.00	11.00	0.00%	100.00%
22	PFC Ludogorets Razgrad	10	8	3	1	4	-3	12:15	22.00	10.00	0.00%	100.00%
23	Dinamo Zagreb	10	8	3	1	4	-4	12:16	23.00	10.00	0.00%	100.00%
24	Brann	9	8	2	3	3	-2	9:11	24.00	9.00	0.00%	100.00%
25	Young Boys	9	8	3	0	5	-6	10:16	25.00	9.00	0.00%	0.00%
26	Sturm Graz	7	8	2	1	5	-6	5:11	26.00	7.00	0.00%	0.00%
27	Steaua Bucuresti	7	8	2	1	5	-7	9:16	27.00	7.00	0.00%	0.00%
28	Go Ahead Eagles Deventer	7	8	2	1	5	-8	6:14	28.00	7.00	0.00%	0.00%
29	Feyenoord	6	8	2	0	6	-4	11:15	29.00	6.00	0.00%	0.00%
30	Basel	6	8	2	0	6	-4	9:13	30.00	6.00	0.00%	0.00%
31	Red Bull Salzburg	6	8	2	0	6	-5	10:15	31.00	6.00	0.00%	0.00%
32	Rangers	4	8	1	1	6	-9	5:14	32.00	4.00	0.00%	0.00%
33	Nice	3	8	1	0	7	-8	7:15	33.00	3.00	0.00%	0.00%
34	Utrecht	1	8	0	1	7	-10	5:15	34.00	1.00	0.00%	0.00%
35	Malmo	1	8	0	1	7	-11	4:15	35.00	1.00	0.00%	0.00%
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv	1	8	0	1	7	-20	2:22	36.00	1.00	0.00%	0.00%

Knockout stage

Play-offs

Celtic /

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

Stuttgart /

Ferencvaros

Fenerbahce /

Panathinaikos

Nottingham Forest /

Viktoria Plzen

Dinamo Zagreb /

Brann

Genk /

Bologna

PAOK /

Lille

Red Star Belgrade /

Celta de Vigo

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad /

Celtic

Ferencvaros /

Stuttgart

Panathinaikos /

Fenerbahce

Viktoria Plzen /

Nottingham Forest

Brann /

Dinamo Zagreb

Bologna /

Genk

Lille /

PAOK

Celta de Vigo /

Red Star Belgrade

Round of 16

Play-off 1 winner

Porto /

Braga

Play-off 2 winner

Midtjylland /

Real Betis

Play-off 3 winner

Freiburg /

Roma

Play-off 4 winner

Lyon /

Aston Villa

Play-off 5 winner

Braga /

Porto

Play-off 6 winner

Real Betis /

Midtjylland

Play-off 7 winner

Roma /

Freiburg

Play-off 8 winner

Aston Villa /

Lyon

Quarter-finals

Winner R16 1

Winner R16 2

Winner R16 3

Winner R16 4

Winner R16 5

Winner R16 6

Winner R16 7

Winner R16 8

Semi-finals

Winner QF 1

Winner QF 2

Winner QF 3

Winner QF 4

Final

Winner SF 1

Winner SF 2

Europa League – Probabilities

#	Team	Playoffs	Reach R16	Reach QF	Reach SF	Reach final	Win
1	Aston Villa	0.0%	100.0%	67.7%	85.3%	55.5%	16.56%
2	Roma	0.0%	100.0%	66.0%	70.7%	41.5%	11.06%
3	Lyon	0.0%	100.0%	59.5%	65.7%	37.8%	9.68%
4	Porto	0.0%	100.0%	61.6%	71.2%	36.1%	9.50%
5	Betis	0.0%	100.0%	57.2%	61.4%	29.9%	7.47%
6	Freiburg	0.0%	100.0%	57.1%	51.6%	26.4%	6.07%
7	Braga	0.0%	100.0%	54.4%	55.1%	24.3%	5.52%
8	Stuttgart	100.0%	67.4%	35.4%	39.9%	20.0%	5.13%
9	Fenerbahce	100.0%	59.0%	33.9%	37.2%	18.6%	4.68%
10	Bologna	100.0%	60.9%	28.1%	25.2%	12.8%	3.03%
11	Midtjylland	0.0%	100.0%	45.3%	38.2%	14.1%	3.03%
12	Lille	100.0%	58.4%	24.1%	25.0%	12.9%	2.99%
13	Nott'm Forest	100.0%	53.4%	26.6%	26.4%	11.6%	2.75%
14	Celta	100.0%	52.4%	20.7%	20.5%	10.2%	2.47%
15	Celtic	100.0%	49.0%	21.1%	20.1%	8.2%	1.77%
16	Viktoria Plzen	100.0%	48.8%	22.5%	19.6%	7.7%	1.77%
17	Dinamo Zagreb	100.0%	48.9%	19.6%	14.8%	6.5%	1.41%
18	PAOK	100.0%	49.5%	16.4%	13.7%	5.8%	1.38%
19	Genk	100.0%	50.7%	17.5%	11.9%	4.8%	1.03%
20	Ferencvaros	100.0%	50.7%	18.2%	14.9%	5.2%	0.88%
21	Panathinaikos	100.0%	38.9%	14.5%	10.2%	3.2%	0.66%
22	Red Star Belgrade	100.0%	39.7%	11.5%	8.7%	3.4%	0.59%
23	Brann	100.0%	39.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.3%	0.34%
24	PFC Ludogorets Razgrad	100.0%	32.9%	9.4%	5.9%	1.5%	0.29%
25	Feyenoord	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
26	Basel	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
27	Nice	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
28	Rangers	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
29	RB Salzburg	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
30	Steaua Bucuresti	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
31	Young Boys	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
32	Utrecht	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
33	Sturm Graz	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
34	Maccabi Tel Aviv	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
35	Go Ahead Eagles	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
36	Malmo	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%

Based on 20˙000 simulations
Last updated: January 29, 2026, 23:00

Season Stats (per 90 minutes)

Team	xG	xGA	Pass %	Poss %	SOG	Shots	Fouls	Offsides	🟨	🟥	Saves
PAOK	1.85	1.47	82.3	47.9	5.3	12.0	11.9	1.9	2.0	0.1	3.8
Stuttgart	1.81	1.02	85.2	59.8	6.4	18.5	12.8	1.5	2.1	0.1	2.3
Lyon	1.74	0.86	88.5	61.3	5.2	14.5	11.3	2.1	1.9	0.2	2.6
Nottingham Forest	1.72	0.97	84.7	51.9	6.0	14.9	13.1	1.5	1.6	0.0	2.5
Bologna	1.66	1.22	81.6	52.7	6.6	18.4	15.5	3.1	2.0	0.1	2.2
Porto	1.65	0.86	83.7	52.9	5.5	14.3	10.8	1.3	2.2	0.0	2.2
Midtjylland	1.56	1.33	77.4	52.1	5.6	12.0	16.7	1.9	2.3	0.0	4.8
Celtic	1.54	1.48	82.2	48.9	3.9	8.6	11.7	1.5	1.7	0.1	3.7
Aston Villa	1.53	0.92	85.8	54.1	5.4	12.1	11.1	1.1	1.5	0.0	3.7
Roma	1.50	1.11	82.1	52.8	4.9	14.5	15.7	2.6	2.1	0.1	2.3
Genk	1.47	1.33	84.3	49.0	5.1	14.1	11.3	2.0	1.4	0.0	3.0
Fenerbahce	1.46	1.26	84.0	57.9	5.6	13.6	9.4	2.4	3.2	0.1	2.6
PFC Ludogorets Razgrad	1.43	1.83	82.9	45.9	4.6	13.8	11.1	1.8	1.9	0.0	4.0
Freiburg	1.43	1.16	81.8	49.3	5.0	12.9	12.4	1.4	1.5	0.1	2.8
Red Bull Salzburg	1.41	2.07	82.0	45.3	5.1	13.3	11.0	2.4	1.3	0.1	4.0
Braga	1.34	1.01	83.4	53.5	4.1	10.2	11.7	1.3	2.3	0.1	2.9
Brann	1.32	1.44	76.7	48.8	4.0	11.6	10.7	1.9	1.0	0.1	3.7
Nice	1.31	1.39	80.5	43.1	3.1	12.3	10.3	0.9	1.9	0.1	3.3
Basel	1.30	1.28	80.8	46.5	4.1	13.1	13.3	1.8	1.9	0.0	4.1
Young Boys	1.29	1.61	82.5	45.5	3.8	11.6	10.6	2.8	1.9	0.3	3.6
Ferencvaros	1.27	1.02	80.8	45.8	3.6	11.3	15.2	1.9	2.3	0.1	2.8
Celta de Vigo	1.24	1.22	83.9	48.2	4.4	10.6	14.1	1.5	2.5	0.2	2.5
Red Star Belgrade	1.24	1.31	80.1	47.7	3.1	11.3	12.1	2.2	2.2	0.1	2.0
Real Betis	1.22	1.14	85.8	54.6	5.2	13.7	11.9	1.7	2.7	0.1	2.0
Rangers	1.21	1.87	83.4	50.3	4.0	10.3	13.6	1.0	1.9	0.3	3.0
Feyenoord	1.21	0.97	84.4	49.4	4.3	12.9	13.7	2.1	2.1	0.0	1.7
Lille	1.21	1.29	85.6	57.9	4.2	12.4	10.9	2.2	1.6	0.1	1.9
Dinamo Zagreb	1.16	1.35	82.3	49.9	3.6	10.6	10.2	1.5	1.6	0.1	2.8
Panathinaikos	1.08	1.21	80.6	50.1	3.7	13.2	10.9	1.2	2.4	0.2	2.9
Viktoria Plzen	0.91	1.19	75.4	45.0	3.8	12.6	14.2	1.3	2.3	0.3	3.8
Steaua Bucuresti	0.85	1.85	77.3	43.8	4.6	10.8	13.4	1.8	2.3	0.1	5.3
Go Ahead Eagles Deventer	0.85	1.98	82.1	48.1	3.3	9.0	10.6	1.9	1.8	0.0	4.6
Maccabi Tel Aviv	0.81	2.24	81.5	40.0	2.4	7.4	13.4	1.3	2.1	0.1	3.9
Utrecht	0.80	1.43	79.5	43.6	3.1	9.3	12.5	1.3	1.5	0.1	4.3
Sturm Graz	0.71	1.65	76.1	45.0	3.1	10.0	16.9	1.9	1.9	0.1	3.6
Malmo	0.58	2.21	79.3	42.0	2.1	7.0	11.4	0.8	2.0	0.3	5.4

Top Scorers

#	Player	Team	Apps	⏱	⚽	🅰️	🟨
1	M. Mouandilmadji	Samsunspor	26	1944	11	1	4
2	Igor Jesus	Nottingham Forest	13	802	7	1	4
3	P. Stanić	PFC Ludogorets Razgrad	11	858	7	1	1
4	Antony	Real Betis	10	788	6	3	2
5	K. Aktürkoğlu	Fenerbahce	9	700	6	1	1
6	O. Watkins	Aston Villa	15	912	5	2	0
7	J. McGinn	Aston Villa	12	715	5	2	3
8	W. Swedberg	Celta de Vigo	10	590	5	2	4
9	D. Beljo	Dinamo Zagreb	8	492	5	1	3
10	B. El Khannouss	Stuttgart	11	648	5	0	4
11	V. Grifo	Freiburg	15	977	5	4	3
12	F. Bernardeschi	Bologna	13	776	5	0	3
13	J. Rowe	Bologna	12	704	4	2	1
14	Y. Suzuki	Freiburg	11	892	4	2	1
15	A. Zaroury	Panathinaikos	12	661	4	1	3
16	A. Ezzalzouli	Real Betis	12	805	4	1	1
17	B. Nygren	Celtic	10	616	4	1	0
18	Z. El Ouahdi	Genk	10	833	4	1	3
19	M. Erlić	Midtjylland	9	734	4	1	4
20	Talisca	Fenerbahce	8	495	4	1	1

Top Assists

#	Player	Team	Apps	⏱	🅰️	⚽	🟨	🟥
1	E. Buendía	Aston Villa	15	994	6	4	2	0
2	D. Undav	Stuttgart	10	765	6	3	2	0
3	M. Rogers	Aston Villa	15	1087	5	3	2	0
4	V. Grifo	Freiburg	15	977	4	5	3	0
5	Ricardo Horta	Braga	16	1010	4	4	1	0
6	D. Heymans	Genk	10	810	4	4	3	0
7	A. Živković	PAOK	11	611	4	3	4	0
8	K. Karetsas	Genk	12	734	4	2	1	0
9	Víctor Gómez	Braga	15	1125	4	0	5	0
10	Antony	Real Betis	10	788	3	6	2	0
11	Iago Aspas	Celta de Vigo	14	752	3	3	2	0
12	M. Gibbs-White	Nottingham Forest	14	941	3	3	2	0
13	B. Yusuf	Ferencvaros	11	791	3	3	1	0
14	A. Karabec	Lyon	9	475	3	2	0	0
15	Y. Tielemans	Aston Villa	9	641	3	2	2	0
16	J. Beste	Freiburg	15	1115	3	1	1	0
17	A. Şimşir	Midtjylland	13	544	3	1	0	0
18	Borja Sainz	Porto	12	674	3	1	1	0
19	J. Cisotti	Steaua Bucuresti	10	452	3	1	3	1
20	L. Assignon	Stuttgart	9	724	3	1	2	0

Recent Matches

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Lyon

4-2

PAOK

Basel

0-1

Viktoria Plzen

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0-3

Bologna

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

1-0

Nice

Genk

2-1

Malmo

Steaua Bucuresti

1-1

Fenerbahce

Nottingham Forest

4-0

Ferencvaros

Sturm Graz

1-0

Brann

Panathinaikos

1-1

Roma

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

0-0

Braga

Stuttgart

3-2

Young Boys

Lille

1-0

Freiburg

Red Star Belgrade

1-1

Celta de Vigo

Midtjylland

2-0

Dinamo Zagreb

Real Betis

2-1

Feyenoord

Celtic

4-2

Utrecht

Porto

3-1

Rangers

Aston Villa

3-2

Red Bull Salzburg

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Malmo

0-1

Red Star Belgrade

Young Boys

0-1

Lyon

Fenerbahce

0-1

Aston Villa

Viktoria Plzen

1-1

Porto

Red Bull Salzburg

3-1

Basel

Feyenoord

3-0

Sturm Graz

Ferencvaros

1-1

Panathinaikos

Utrecht

0-2

Genk

Dinamo Zagreb

4-1

Steaua Bucuresti

Celta de Vigo

2-1

Lille

Roma

2-0

Stuttgart

Nice

3-1

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

Rangers

1-0

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

Braga

1-0

Nottingham Forest

Freiburg

1-0

Maccabi Tel Aviv

PAOK

2-0

Real Betis

Bologna

2-2

Celtic

Brann

3-3

Midtjylland

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Freiburg

1-0

Red Bull Salzburg

Nice

0-1

Braga

Sturm Graz

0-1

Red Star Belgrade

Utrecht

1-2

Nottingham Forest

Ferencvaros

2-1

Rangers

Dinamo Zagreb

1-3

Real Betis

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

3-3

PAOK

Midtjylland

1-0

Genk

Stuttgart

4-1

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Celta de Vigo

1-2

Bologna

Brann

0-4

Fenerbahce

Porto

2-1

Malmo

Panathinaikos

0-0

Viktoria Plzen

Lyon

2-1

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

Basel

1-2

Aston Villa

Celtic

0-3

Roma

Steaua Bucuresti

4-3

Feyenoord

Young Boys

1-0

Lille

Thursday, November 27, 2025

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

3-2

Celta de Vigo

Roma

2-1

Midtjylland

Red Star Belgrade

1-0

Steaua Bucuresti

Real Betis

2-1

Utrecht

PAOK

1-1

Brann

Aston Villa

2-1

Young Boys

Viktoria Plzen

0-0

Freiburg

Porto

3-0

Nice

Fenerbahce

1-1

Ferencvaros

Bologna

4-1

Red Bull Salzburg

Lille

4-0

Dinamo Zagreb

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

0-4

Stuttgart

Rangers

1-1

Braga

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0-6

Lyon

Feyenoord

1-3

Celtic

Genk

2-1

Basel

Panathinaikos

2-1

Sturm Graz

Nottingham Forest

3-0

Malmo

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Rangers

0-2

Roma

Nice

1-3

Freiburg

Red Bull Salzburg

2-0

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

Red Star Belgrade

1-0

Lille

Ferencvaros

3-1

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

Malmo

0-1

Panathinaikos

Sturm Graz

0-0

Nottingham Forest

Viktoria Plzen

0-0

Fenerbahce

Aston Villa

2-0

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Bologna

0-0

Brann

Utrecht

1-1

Porto

Real Betis

2-0

Lyon

Stuttgart

2-0

Feyenoord

Midtjylland

3-1

Celtic

Basel

3-1

Steaua Bucuresti

Dinamo Zagreb

0-3

Celta de Vigo

PAOK

4-0

Young Boys

Braga

3-4

Genk

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Steaua Bucuresti

1-2

Bologna

Roma

1-2

Viktoria Plzen

Malmo

1-1

Dinamo Zagreb

Freiburg

2-0

Utrecht

Braga

2-0

Red Star Belgrade

Genk

0-0

Real Betis

Brann

3-0

Rangers

Fenerbahce

1-0

Stuttgart

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

2-1

Aston Villa

Red Bull Salzburg

2-3

Ferencvaros

Young Boys

3-2

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

Celtic

2-1

Sturm Graz

Feyenoord

3-1

Panathinaikos

Lyon

2-0

Basel

Nottingham Forest

2-0

Porto

Lille

3-4

PAOK

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0-3

Midtjylland

Celta de Vigo

2-1

Nice

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Roma

0-1

Lille

Fenerbahce

2-1

Nice

Steaua Bucuresti

0-2

Young Boys

Panathinaikos

1-2

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

Celtic

0-2

Braga

Brann

1-0

Utrecht

Bologna

1-1

Freiburg

Nottingham Forest

2-3

Midtjylland

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

0-2

Real Betis

Basel

2-0

Stuttgart

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1-3

Dinamo Zagreb

Porto

2-1

Red Star Belgrade

Lyon

2-0

Red Bull Salzburg

Feyenoord

0-2

Aston Villa

Sturm Graz

2-1

Rangers

Viktoria Plzen

3-0

Malmo

Genk

0-1

Ferencvaros

Celta de Vigo

3-1

PAOK

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Aston Villa

1-0

Bologna

Red Bull Salzburg

0-1

Porto

Rangers

0-1

Genk

Young Boys

1-4

Panathinaikos

Go Ahead Eagles Deventer

0-1

Steaua Bucuresti

Lille

2-1

Brann

Ferencvaros

1-1

Viktoria Plzen

Stuttgart

2-1

Celta de Vigo

Utrecht

0-1

Lyon

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Dinamo Zagreb

3-1

Fenerbahce

Malmo

1-2

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

Midtjylland

2-0

Sturm Graz

PAOK

0-0

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Red Star Belgrade

1-1

Celtic

Nice

1-2

Roma

Freiburg

2-1

Basel

Real Betis

2-2

Nottingham Forest

Braga

1-0

Feyenoord

Thursday, August 28, 2025

KuPS

0-2

Midtjylland

Samsunspor

0-0

Panathinaikos

Genk

1-2

Lech Poznan

PAOK

5-0

HNK Rijeka

Dynamo Kyiv

1-0

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Young Boys

3-2

Slovan Bratislava

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

4-1

Shkendija

Braga

5-1

Lincoln Red Imps

Sigma Olomouc

0-2

Malmo

Utrecht

0-0

Zrinjski Mostar

Steaua Bucuresti

3-0

Aberdeen

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

AEK Larnaca

0-4

Brann