European play-off paths (knockout phase)
Based on simulations. Percentages show the chance to reach the play-off final and to qualify for the World Cup via the path.
Path A
Italy
F: 74.2% Q: 51.3%
Northern Ireland
F: 25.8% Q: 11.1%
Wales
F: 57.6% Q: 23.2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
F: 42.4% Q: 14.5%
Winner semi-final 1
Winner semi-final 2
Path B
Poland
F: 64.4% Q: 31.9%
Albania
F: 35.6% Q: 12.5%
Sweden
F: 52.2% Q: 29.6%
Ukraine
F: 47.8% Q: 26.0%
Winner semi-final 1
Winner semi-final 2
Path C
Turkey
F: 55.1% Q: 32.8%
Kosovo
F: 43.3% Q: 16.9%
Slovakia
F: 56.7% Q: 25.6%
Romania
F: 44.9% Q: 24.7%
Winner semi-final 1
Winner semi-final 2
Path D
Denmark
F: 71.4% Q: 43.3%
North Macedonia
F: 28.6% Q: 10.9%
Czech Republic
F: 53.9% Q: 25.6%
Ireland
F: 46.1% Q: 20.2%
Winner semi-final 1
Winner semi-final 2
World Cup - Qualification Europe
Group standings and probabilities based on simulations.
Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Germany
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | +13 | 16:3 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Slovakia
|
6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -2 | 6:8 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
Northern Ireland
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | +1 | 7:6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Luxembourg
|
6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -12 | 1:13 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group B
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Switzerland
|
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | +12 | 14:2 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Kosovo
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | +1 | 6:5 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
Slovenia
|
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 3:8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Sweden
|
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -8 | 4:12 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group D
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
France
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | +12 | 16:4 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Ukraine
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -1 | 10:11 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
Iceland
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | +2 | 13:11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Azerbaijan
|
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -13 | 3:16 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group G
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Netherlands
|
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | +23 | 27:4 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Poland
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | +7 | 14:7 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
Finland
|
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 8:14 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Malta
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -15 | 4:19 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 |
Lithuania
|
8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -9 | 6:15 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group H
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Austria
|
8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | +18 | 22:4 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | +10 | 17:7 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
Romania
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | +9 | 19:10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Cyprus
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 11:11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 |
San Marino
|
8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -37 | 2:39 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group J
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Belgium
|
8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | +22 | 29:7 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Wales
|
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | +10 | 21:11 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
North Macedonia
|
8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | +3 | 13:10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Kazakhstan
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 9:13 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 |
Liechtenstein
|
8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -31 | 0:31 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Group L
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Pts | GD | G | 1st | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Croatia
|
8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | +22 | 26:4 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |
Czech Republic
|
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | +10 | 18:8 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |
Faroe Islands
|
8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | +2 | 11:9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 |
Montenegro
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 8:17 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 |
Gibraltar
|
8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -25 | 3:28 | 0.0% | 0.0% |