World Cup
Tournament probabilities based on simulation results.
Group A
Mexico
|
South Korea
|
South Africa
|
Czech Republic
|
Group B
Canada
|
Switzerland
|
Qatar
|
Bosnia and Herzegovina
|
Group E
Germany
|
Ecuador
|
Ivory Coast
|
Curaçao
|
Group F
Netherlands
|
Japan
|
Tunisia
|
Sweden
|
Group G
Belgium
|
Iran
|
Egypt
|
New Zealand
|
Group H
Spain
|
Uruguay
|
Saudi Arabia
|
Cape Verde
|
Group K
Portugal
|
Colombia
|
Uzbekistan
|
Congo DR
|
World Cup – Probabilities
| # | Team | Qualify group | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
87.7% | 58.3% | 38.4% | 25.5% | 16.2% | 10.43% |
| 2 |
Brazil
|
87.1% | 55.2% | 35.9% | 23.0% | 14.5% | 8.76% |
| 3 |
Argentina
|
84.7% | 52.9% | 33.7% | 21.4% | 13.2% | 7.53% |
| 4 |
France
|
82.5% | 52.8% | 32.5% | 19.4% | 11.2% | 6.35% |
| 5 |
Portugal
|
81.1% | 49.6% | 29.3% | 17.4% | 9.8% | 5.41% |
| 6 |
England
|
82.2% | 50.1% | 30.1% | 17.3% | 9.5% | 5.25% |
| 7 |
Netherlands
|
77.6% | 45.0% | 27.8% | 16.0% | 8.9% | 4.76% |
| 8 |
Germany
|
84.1% | 51.7% | 29.0% | 16.8% | 9.1% | 4.47% |
| 9 |
Belgium
|
74.8% | 44.5% | 24.2% | 12.8% | 6.9% | 3.49% |
| 10 |
Colombia
|
75.7% | 42.3% | 23.3% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 3.17% |
| 11 |
Japan
|
73.3% | 40.1% | 23.2% | 12.0% | 6.2% | 3.16% |
| 12 |
Croatia
|
73.9% | 39.3% | 20.7% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 2.45% |
| 13 |
Iran
|
73.8% | 42.8% | 22.3% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 2.42% |
| 14 |
Uruguay
|
75.2% | 39.7% | 21.3% | 11.1% | 5.2% | 2.41% |
| 15 |
South Korea
|
74.8% | 42.1% | 21.7% | 10.2% | 4.7% | 2.29% |
| 16 |
Mexico
|
73.8% | 41.7% | 21.1% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 2.26% |
| 17 |
Australia
|
73.4% | 39.3% | 19.5% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 2.18% |
| 18 |
USA
|
72.5% | 38.3% | 19.1% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 2.02% |
| 19 |
Switzerland
|
77.8% | 40.5% | 19.5% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.79% |
| 20 |
Morocco
|
72.4% | 35.4% | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.75% |
| 21 |
Senegal
|
68.4% | 35.4% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 1.72% |
| 22 |
Algeria
|
66.9% | 31.6% | 15.2% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.41% |
| 23 |
Egypt
|
65.4% | 33.9% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.39% |
| 24 |
Ecuador
|
70.8% | 35.0% | 15.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 1.19% |
| 25 |
Canada
|
70.8% | 32.6% | 14.2% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.06% |
| 26 |
Ivory Coast
|
71.2% | 34.4% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 1.03% |
| 27 |
Turkey
|
65.6% | 31.9% | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.02% |
| 28 |
Tunisia
|
59.0% | 25.4% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.84% |
| 29 |
Austria
|
62.2% | 26.7% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.79% |
| 30 |
Norway
|
61.8% | 27.8% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.64% |
| 31 |
Sweden
|
57.5% | 24.3% | 11.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.64% |
| 32 |
Uzbekistan
|
60.8% | 27.1% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.63% |
| 33 |
Czech Republic
|
60.1% | 27.4% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.58% |
| 34 |
Iraq
|
54.9% | 22.0% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.48% |
| 35 |
South Africa
|
59.3% | 26.3% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.47% |
| 36 |
Saudi Arabia
|
57.8% | 22.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.43% |
| 37 |
Scotland
|
58.0% | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.42% |
| 38 |
Ghana
|
55.2% | 22.2% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.39% |
| 39 |
Panama
|
54.8% | 21.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.39% |
| 40 |
New Zealand
|
53.7% | 23.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.39% |
| 41 |
Paraguay
|
56.2% | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.34% |
| 42 |
Qatar
|
63.5% | 25.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.33% |
| 43 |
Jordan
|
52.0% | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.27% |
| 44 |
Congo DR
|
49.2% | 18.4% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.27% |
| 45 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina
|
55.6% | 19.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.22% |
| 46 |
Haiti
|
46.5% | 14.6% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.14% |
| 47 |
Cape Verde
|
44.7% | 14.0% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.13% |
| 48 |
Curaçao
|
40.0% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.04% |