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World Cup

World Cup Probabilities

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Probability of each team reaching every stage of the tournament, based on simulation results.

Team Probabilities
Tournament probabilities
Finish 1st in group
Finish 2nd in group
Finish 3rd in group
Finish 4th in group
Qualify from group
Reach Round of 16
Reach Quarter-finals
Reach Semi-finals
Reach Final
Win the World Cup
Most likely Round of 32 opponents
No opponent data available.
World Cup – Probabilities
# Team Qualify group Reach R16 Reach QF Reach SF Reach final Win
1 Argentina flag Argentina 100.0% 86.5% 64.6% 43.9% 25.4% 14.38%
2 Spain flag Spain 100.0% 74.6% 47.4% 33.6% 21.6% 13.18%
3 Brazil flag Brazil 100.0% 63.1% 47.7% 30.7% 19.3% 11.39%
4 France flag France 100.0% 74.4% 44.2% 28.7% 16.3% 9.16%
5 England flag England 100.0% 80.0% 52.6% 28.6% 16.2% 8.49%
6 Netherlands flag Netherlands 100.0% 60.5% 43.3% 22.1% 11.2% 5.72%
7 Portugal flag Portugal 100.0% 59.2% 27.5% 17.1% 9.2% 4.77%
8 Germany flag Germany 100.0% 60.5% 30.7% 18.2% 9.3% 4.69%
9 Colombia flag Colombia 100.0% 69.9% 42.4% 20.3% 9.4% 4.26%
10 Belgium flag Belgium 100.0% 57.1% 35.6% 14.8% 7.0% 3.14%
11 Japan flag Japan 100.0% 36.9% 23.7% 12.3% 6.2% 2.87%
12 USA flag USA 100.0% 73.9% 34.2% 12.3% 5.1% 2.08%
13 Mexico flag Mexico 100.0% 56.4% 24.5% 10.2% 4.5% 1.83%
14 Switzerland flag Switzerland 100.0% 58.1% 28.3% 11.6% 4.6% 1.79%
15 Morocco flag Morocco 100.0% 39.5% 24.3% 9.7% 3.9% 1.53%
16 Croatia flag Croatia 100.0% 40.8% 15.5% 8.2% 3.7% 1.52%
17 Australia flag Australia 100.0% 39.5% 16.2% 8.1% 3.4% 1.37%
18 Senegal flag Senegal 100.0% 42.9% 24.0% 8.5% 3.5% 1.37%
19 Egypt flag Egypt 100.0% 62.1% 21.4% 10.1% 3.7% 1.32%
20 Ecuador flag Ecuador 100.0% 43.6% 16.5% 6.0% 2.4% 0.78%
21 Ivory Coast flag Ivory Coast 100.0% 52.2% 15.4% 5.9% 2.2% 0.74%
22 Algeria flag Algeria 100.0% 25.4% 9.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.60%
23 Norway flag Norway 100.0% 47.8% 13.2% 4.8% 1.8% 0.59%
24 Austria flag Austria 100.0% 41.9% 17.3% 5.9% 1.9% 0.59%
25 Canada flag Canada 100.0% 54.5% 18.7% 5.9% 1.8% 0.53%
26 Sweden flag Sweden 100.0% 25.6% 8.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.36%
27 South Africa flag South Africa 100.0% 45.5% 13.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.30%
28 Ghana flag Ghana 100.0% 30.1% 12.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.26%
29 Paraguay flag Paraguay 100.0% 37.9% 9.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.25%
30 Congo DR flag Congo DR 100.0% 20.0% 6.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.08%
31 Cape Verde flag Cape Verde 100.0% 13.5% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.04%
32 Bosnia and Herzegovina flag Bosnia and Herzegovina 100.0% 26.1% 6.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.04%
33 Iran flag Iran 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
34 South Korea flag South Korea 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
35 Turkey flag Turkey 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
36 Scotland flag Scotland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
37 Uruguay flag Uruguay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
38 Saudi Arabia flag Saudi Arabia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
39 Czech Republic flag Czech Republic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
40 New Zealand flag New Zealand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
41 Qatar flag Qatar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
42 Curaçao flag Curaçao 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
43 Tunisia flag Tunisia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
44 Uzbekistan flag Uzbekistan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
45 Iraq flag Iraq 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
46 Panama flag Panama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
47 Jordan flag Jordan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
48 Haiti flag Haiti 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%